Nigerians praying and hoping for a more favourable economic outlook in the country in 2018 may have to pray and work harder if the forecast by economic experts concerning the coming year is anything to go by.
Nigerians have had to endure a turbulent economic situation in the outgoing year as highlighted by massive job loss, high cost of living, poor remunerations and irregular payment of salaries by both governments and private business organisations amid assurance by the managers of the nation’s economy that the burdens of the Nigerian masses would be greatly eased in the new year.
While announcing the plans of the Federal Government to ameliorate the sufferings of the masses in 2018, at the graduation ceremony of the Senior Executive Course 39 of 2017 of the National Institute of Policy and Strategic Studies, (NIPSS) recently, Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, had assured that all sectors of the Nigerian economy would witness government’s intervention and support, in order to further consolidate the improving economy.
“To start with, the Federal Government sees 2018 as a year of consolidation of the economic recovery, and the gains from improved macroeconomic management, and the extensive investments made in agriculture, infrastructure and the business environment. We are diversifying our options in power supply,” Osinbajo said.
”Our programme of energizing industrial clusters has started. That project involves providing power in existing small business clusters. For our first batch, we will be providing independent power in certain markets; the Ariaria Market in Abia State, the Somolu Printing Community in Lagos State, the Muhammadu Abubakar Rimi (Sabon Gari) Market in Kano State. This power is independent power which will guarantee constant supply 24/7. We intend to take on batch by batch some of these projects to encourage small businesses,” he said.
The Vice President at the event also reeled out other programmes of actions to be embarked on by the government in the New Year to ensure that more Nigerians get employed: “Our emphasis going forward, will be on job creation through scaling up of the social intervention programmes not only to include artisans, but also through a massive construction effort with regards to homes and revitalization of the manufacturing sector.
”Jobs are central to our purpose for revitalizing the manufacturing sector. The focused attention we have given to promote agriculture will be replicated in the manufacturing sector. We recognise that electricity is critical for this sector and this is being continually addressed.
”Jobs are also the reason why we will be fast-tracking the implementation of the Family Homes Fund. It is an important programme for providing housing in the coming year. Our intention is to use this programme to create a large number of jobs in construction, and to promote widespread home ownership by providing affordable housing to be paid for through a sustainable mortgage financing system.”
As laudable as the government’s plans for the coming year may seem, economic experts say signs of more turbulent times for Nigerians in 2018 have multiplied more rapidly in the recent months. Escalating unemployment rate, high inflation trend, intermittent fuel scarcity and escalating social problems, according to them, are some of the challenges Nigerians may have to grapple with in the New Year.
An economist and lecturer in the Department of Private and Property Law of Babcock University, Dr Tayo Bello, predicted that Year 2018, being a year of intense political activities, would witness a lot of infractions as, according to him, politicians would be looking for ways of making more money and creating problems for the country.
“It will be a time when people will try to amass wealth either to launder it abroad or use it for elections. So, I do not think Nigerians should expect anything better than what we are seeing now,” he pointed out.
Increase in the price of crude oil at the global market provides yet another basis for Nigerians to be disturbed ahead of the coming year. The high price of crude oil at international market, according to Bello, will impact on the local prices of petroleum products as long as the bulk of refined products consumed in the country is imported.
“Even if there is increase in price of crude oil globally, the antecedent problem is that there will be increase in the local prices of the products because of the cost of importing the refined products. Unfortunately when the price (of crude oil) was down government did not do anything. You will only notice crisis when the price goes up,” he noted.
Already, the government is accused of playing hide and seek game with the current fuel scarcity and its attendant economic hardship, following the conflicting reasons adduced for the development. And if this connotes anything, Bello says it is an indication of harsher times in 2018.
“It is disturbing that our government seems not to understand the economics of the economy. If it does, the government would have known what to do to turn the situation around for the better. As it is, inflation will go up because of the likelihood of increase in the prices of petroleum products. And there is also the likelihood of intermittent scarcity of fuel next year.
“By and large, inflation rate will still go up. We can’t maintain a single digit. The cost of borrowing will still go up and I don’t see energy or electricity improving. Consequently, there will be a lot of abandoned projects, particularly in the area of road construction,” Bello said.
Also commenting on the economic outlook for the coming year, a former President, Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, CIBN, Mazi Okechukwu Inuegbu, said that despite the relatively good outing the nation’s economy recorded in the last quarter of the outgoing year, Nigerians should be concerned by the possibility of escalating job losses in the New Year. Inuegbu predicated his position on the unfriendly business environment in the country, which according to him, may worsen the problem of unemployment in the country. “To be sincere with ourselves, the business environment is not improving as some people may want us to believe. The ease of doing business legally is very poor. Considering the unemployment rate in the country now, there is a need to make the business environment friendlier if the unemployment rate is not to escalate.
“The unemployment rate is one issue that disturbs me the most. If nothing is done, unemployment rate is going to, in fact, double what it was in 2017. And if that happens, we may have a situation whereby our youths will face more difficult times. We see what people are going through in Libya. A lot of unemployed people will still want to go out thinking that things will be different over there.
In the opinion of another lecturer in the Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Dr. Afolabi Adebisi, government’s projection of a better 2018 as a result of the increase in the price of crude oil is unfounded. Afolabi who noted that the unavailability of statistics about the performance of the economy in the outgoing year would make the projections about the country’s economic outlook for next year difficult, urged Nigerians to brace up for internal shocks that may possibly arise from the country’s commodity-dependent economy.
“We don’t have the statistics of the performance of the economy for 2017. So how do we project for the future? It is only based on the available statistics that we can make our projections. But looking at the nature of the Nigerian economy, this is a commodity-dependent economy. This means we should expect internal shocks which can be positive or negative.
“But considering the situation on ground, I don’t see any prospect for the Nigerian economy come next year. We are still battling with political shocks in the country – insurgency, corruption; we are not talking about the real sector of the economy. It is only when adequate attention is given to the real sector of the nation’s economy that we can begin to talk about the future of the country’s economy.
“The government, based on the increase in the price of crude oil, is expressing optimism about the nation’s economy in 2018. Is that the only commodity? What are they doing about other commodities? What would happen to the economy if the price of crude oil falls tomorrow?” he queried.
Nevertheless, as gloomy as the outlook of the nation’s economy may appear in the coming year, there is indeed a ray of hope for Nigerians in the agricultural sector, which analysts adjudge to have recorded significant improvement. And the former CIBN boss wants Nigerians to see the sector as a leeway out of whatever challenge the New Year may throw up.
According to Inuegbu, the sector which was once the mainstay of the nation’s economy may once again provide the needed succour for teeming Nigerian youths in the coming year.
“The agricultural sector is going to experience a brilliant time. I have gone round so many farms, even in my state, the sector is doing very well. So people can look at that direction, particularly our young people.
In addition to this, the former CIBN President also enjoined the government to put in place incentives for existing businesses and their owners in order to be encouraged to employ more people even as he urged the regulators in the business community to make the environment conducive for businesses.
“Regulators should know that with the situation we are now in and considering the unemployment rate, there is the need to lower the requirements and relax the regulations guiding the way business is conducted legally. This will help to lower the unemployment rate because there will be more jobs for the people.
In his own submission on how to navigate through the economic challenge of the coming year, Adebisi advised Nigerians to tighten their belts further and guard against incurring unnecessary and frivolous expenses in the year.
|Sun